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font-size:12px; border:1px solid #eee; display:none;"> <SCRIPT LANGUAGE="javascript">  </SCRIPT> </div>   <div class="caacec4c0e" id="mbox" style="width:690px; margin-left:0;"> <div id="caacec4c0e" class="sharebox03"> <div id="caacec4c0e" class="mainbox_01" style="color:#006aa2;"> <div id="caacec4c0e" class="itmleft"><a href="../../../" target="_blank" class='curplace'>首頁</a>-<a href="../../" target="_blank" class='curplace'>新聞中心</a>-<a href="../" target="_blank" class='curplace'>要聞</a></div> <div id="caacec4c0e" class="itmright">字號(hào)：<a href="javascript:doZoom(16)">大</a> <a href="javascript:doZoom(14)">中</a> <a href="javascript:doZoom(12)">小</a> </div> </div> <div id="caacec4c0e" class="mainbox_01"style="border-bottom:#999 1px solid; margin-bottom:10px;"> <h1>金磚四國再聚首西方媒體稱試圖改變?nèi)蚋窬?/h1> </div> <div id="caacec4c0e" class="mainbox_01"style="text-align:center;color:#006aa2"> 時(shí)間：2010-04-16 11:26　　來源：中國新聞網(wǎng)</div> <div id="caacec4c0e" class="mainbox_02" id="textsize"><P>　　經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家稱他們?yōu)椤敖鸫u四國”。這個(gè)名字，代表的是全世界四個(gè)增長(zhǎng)最快、最有潛力的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體———中國、巴西、俄羅斯和印度。當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間15日，“金磚四國”領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人第二次正式會(huì)晤在巴西首都巴西利亞舉行。此時(shí)，距離去年6月份“金磚四國”第一次峰會(huì)，還不到一年時(shí)間。在西方老牌發(fā)達(dá)國家依然在百年不遇的金融危機(jī)中步履蹣跚之際，四個(gè)新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體再度聚首“論天下”，立即讓西方媒體作出了“金磚四國正試圖改變?nèi)驒?quán)力格局”的論斷。不過，專家也表示，“金磚四國”現(xiàn)在最需要的，不是雄心勃勃的目標(biāo)，而是相互磨合。</P> <P>　　<STRONG>經(jīng)濟(jì)增速催生新力量</STRONG></P> <P>　　2000年至2008年，“金磚四國”對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)率超過30%</P> <P>　　2001年11月20日，高盛證券公司首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家吉姆·奧尼爾發(fā)表的一份題為《全球需要更好的經(jīng)濟(jì)之磚》中，提出了“金磚四國”的概念。他在文章中表示，“在未來十年中，金磚四國，尤其是中國在世界GDP中的分量將極大增長(zhǎng)，”因此，“世界政策論壇將朝對(duì)金磚四國有利的方向重組�！�</P> <P>　　此后，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)的發(fā)展，讓奧尼爾的上述判斷逐漸得到驗(yàn)證。</P> <P>　　經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2000年至2008年，“金磚四國”對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)率超過30%。而在金融危機(jī)重挫西方發(fā)達(dá)國家的2007年至2009年，這一比例更上升至45%。這成為“金磚四國”影響力及期待值空前提升的重要背景。此外，“金磚四國”貿(mào)易量在全球的占比近些年也持續(xù)上升，僅過去兩年，就提高了約兩個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，達(dá)到約13%。</P> <P>　　在2009年，受金融危機(jī)的影響，巴西和俄羅斯的經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)不佳，巴西2009年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度僅有0.1%，俄羅斯甚至倒退了7.9%，但中國和印度依然在逆流中達(dá)到了8.7%和7%的增長(zhǎng)。進(jìn)入2010年，在中印經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展勢(shì)頭依然看好的同時(shí)，巴西和俄羅斯也迅速重回快速增長(zhǎng)軌道。官方機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì)，巴西2010年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將達(dá)到5.5%左右。而俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)則在今年前兩個(gè)月同比增長(zhǎng)4.5%。世界銀行則在3月份將其對(duì)2010年俄經(jīng)濟(jì)增速的預(yù)測(cè)大幅上調(diào)至5%至5.5%。</P> <P>　　2009年6月份，中印巴俄四國在俄羅斯葉卡捷琳堡舉行了首次峰會(huì)，探討如何應(yīng)對(duì)國際金融危機(jī)，至此，此前一直作為一個(gè)概念存在的“金磚四國”終于成為一個(gè)有形的多邊外交模式，在金融危機(jī)下，這次處女秀也獲得國際輿論的高度關(guān)注。</P> <P>　　<STRONG>金磚四國正強(qiáng)化存在</STRONG></P> <P>　　代表21世紀(jì)國際格局發(fā)展新力量的兩個(gè)“概念集團(tuán)”、5個(gè)發(fā)展中大國首腦同聚巴西</P> <P>　　2010年4月15日，四國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人再次聚首巴西。分析人士指出，如果說去年的首次聚會(huì)還不能說明“金磚四國”一定會(huì)有意愿，在國際社會(huì)中逐漸強(qiáng)化存在感，那不到一年后的第二次會(huì)晤，則可以成為這一趨勢(shì)的重要注腳。</P> <P>　　當(dāng)天，中國國家主席胡錦濤、印度總理辛格、俄羅斯總統(tǒng)梅德韋杰夫都已經(jīng)抵達(dá)巴西，參加第二次“金磚四國”峰會(huì)。此外，另一個(gè)重要的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體，南非總統(tǒng)祖馬也來到巴西，參加印度、巴西與南非三邊發(fā)展倡議(IBSA)首腦峰會(huì)。值得一提的是，與“金磚四國”其名的另一新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體概念———“基礎(chǔ)四國”(中國、印度、巴西、南非)正也包含南非這個(gè)非洲經(jīng)濟(jì)大國。代表21世紀(jì)國際格局發(fā)展新力量的兩個(gè)“概念集團(tuán)”、5個(gè)發(fā)展中大國首腦同聚巴西，其向世界發(fā)出的信號(hào)不言而喻。</P> <P>　　據(jù)悉，此次“金磚四國”峰會(huì)和IBSA峰會(huì)的主要議題有兩個(gè)，一是討論國際金融危機(jī)的形勢(shì)，二是討論如何增強(qiáng)兩個(gè)組織中成員國之間的合作。此外，IBSA峰會(huì)還將討論印度和巴西要求改革安理會(huì)，成為安理會(huì)常任理事國的問題。</P> <P>　　在“金磚四國”峰會(huì)上，四國還將討論伊朗核問題以及圍繞伊核問題的爭(zhēng)議。這將是伊朗第一次成為金磚四國峰會(huì)的焦點(diǎn)議程之一。</P> <P>　　此外，分析顯示，由于今年要召開二十國集團(tuán)峰會(huì)，“金磚四國”作為一個(gè)非常重要的新興力量，在這次會(huì)議前有必要協(xié)調(diào)一下各自的立場(chǎng)，從而在峰會(huì)上創(chuàng)造有利的局面。</P> <P>　　英國媒體還觀察到一個(gè)很有意思的細(xì)節(jié)。“金磚四國”峰會(huì)前，四國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人都前往華盛頓出席了47個(gè)國家共同參與的全球核安全峰會(huì)。因此，此次“金磚四國”峰會(huì)的時(shí)機(jī)似乎也與核安全峰會(huì)有關(guān)�！岸砹_斯、中國和印度領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人都繞了地球半圈才抵達(dá)華盛頓，利用這個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)再聚首巴西利亞是個(gè)不錯(cuò)的選擇。”</P> <P>　　<STRONG>20年內(nèi)就要“變天”？</STRONG></P> <P>　　分析人士稱，人口眾多，內(nèi)需潛力巨大的“金磚四國”，將在20年內(nèi)與西方七國分庭抗禮</P> <P>　　近年來，在西方媒體的報(bào)道中，“金磚四國”不僅是一個(gè)重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，更是既有全球權(quán)力格局的挑戰(zhàn)者。</P> <P>　　作為四大新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體，“金磚四國”擁有占全球42%的人口，陸地面積占全球的26%，經(jīng)濟(jì)重要性更是不言而喻�！敖陙恚鸫u四國對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增速的貢獻(xiàn)超過50%，”俄羅斯總統(tǒng)梅德韋杰夫表示，“這四個(gè)國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)占據(jù)了世界經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的14.6%�！�</P> <P>　　而金磚四國的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景也顯得樂觀。巴西外交部政治事務(wù)秘書賈古里波表示，“從2008年到2014年，金磚四國將貢獻(xiàn)61.3%的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)�！�</P> <P>　　英國媒體報(bào)道稱，近年來，隨著新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體迅速崛起，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)格局正在發(fā)生歷史性變遷，而國際金融危機(jī)則使得這一進(jìn)程大大加快。</P> <P>　　文章稱，最為引人注目的現(xiàn)象是，西方七國集團(tuán)逐漸“沒落”，在討論全球性經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融危機(jī)方面越來越力不從心，而“金磚四國”及包括其在內(nèi)的二十國集團(tuán)則迅速上位，重要性日益增強(qiáng)。</P> <P>　　分析人士指出，隨著金磚四國的迅速發(fā)展，這幾個(gè)人口眾多，內(nèi)需潛力巨大的國家將在20年內(nèi)與西方七國集團(tuán)分庭抗禮，甚至令其黯然失色。而到時(shí)候美元是否還能保持國際貨幣地位也很懸，因?yàn)�，金磚四國已經(jīng)開始尋找替代性的方案。</P> <P>　　對(duì)此，北京大學(xué)國際關(guān)系學(xué)院教授朱鋒對(duì)記者說，西方國家之所以把“金磚四國”看作一個(gè)平衡甚至挑戰(zhàn)現(xiàn)有國際秩序的力量，其原因是，“金磚四國”都是新興的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，在西方國家眼中，這四國也都不是傳統(tǒng)意義上的西方國家。四個(gè)國家之間加強(qiáng)合作，形成共同的立場(chǎng)，也不是為了維護(hù)西方國家的主導(dǎo)地位，而是為了在未來國際關(guān)系和權(quán)力機(jī)構(gòu)變化的形勢(shì)下，能進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)合作，構(gòu)建話語權(quán)。</P> <P>　　<STRONG>“好兄弟”也需磨合</STRONG></P> <P>　　“四個(gè)國家沒有共同的議程，各自的利益有分歧，很多時(shí)候甚至?xí)霈F(xiàn)沖突�！�</P> <P>　　不過，雖然“金磚四國”發(fā)展前景看好，但也有批評(píng)人士指出，盡管四個(gè)國家作為一個(gè)多邊集團(tuán)的預(yù)測(cè)已形成良久，但四個(gè)國家的議程并沒有共同點(diǎn)。</P> <P>　　“很明顯，四個(gè)國家沒有共同的議程，各自的利益有分歧，很多時(shí)候甚至?xí)霈F(xiàn)沖突，”圣保羅大學(xué)國際關(guān)系專家克里斯蒂安·洛哈波爾表示。</P> <P>　　他舉例稱，俄羅斯和巴西得益于不斷提高的消費(fèi)品價(jià)格，但中國和印度則并不能從中受益。此外，印度市場(chǎng)對(duì)于俄羅斯公司進(jìn)入也施加種種限制，這讓俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展部門不快。</P> <P>　　俄羅斯社科院遠(yuǎn)東研究所的副所長(zhǎng)弗拉迪米爾·博雅科夫也承認(rèn)，“金磚四國”目前更多的是言論，而沒有落實(shí)到行動(dòng)。但他表示，這種狀況將得到改變，四國已經(jīng)打算提出一些“共同立場(chǎng)的元素”。</P> <P>　　他認(rèn)為，首要的一個(gè)共同立場(chǎng)就是，新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體應(yīng)該提升他們?cè)趪H金融機(jī)構(gòu)中的地位。</P> <P>　　對(duì)于金磚四國未來的發(fā)展方向，俄總統(tǒng)梅德韋杰夫提出了自己的觀點(diǎn)。他表示，“金磚四國不僅應(yīng)致力于增強(qiáng)一個(gè)多級(jí)世界的經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)，也希望在客觀上幫助創(chuàng)造條件，推動(dòng)強(qiáng)化國際安全局勢(shì)。”分析人士稱，俄羅斯希望把“金磚四國”轉(zhuǎn)化成一個(gè)政治聯(lián)盟。</P> <P>　　對(duì)于“金磚四國”的發(fā)展前景，朱鋒認(rèn)為，“金磚四國”的概念能否真正變成一支國際關(guān)系中的新興力量，取決于未來國際關(guān)系的發(fā)展方向、各國國家力量的對(duì)比、各國各自能扮演的角色，也取決于各國具體的發(fā)展進(jìn)程。</P> <P style="MARGIN: 0px">　　“目前金磚四國最重要的是需要有一個(gè)交流和理解的過程，四國間的多邊合作交流不比雙邊合作，這需要一個(gè)磨合的過程。從現(xiàn)在來看，四國的合作形式比實(shí)質(zhì)意義更重大”。朱鋒說。（記者顏穎顓）</P> <P style="MARGIN: 0px"> </P> <P style="MARGIN: 0px" align=center><A href="http://opkks.com/xwzx/" target=_blank><FONT 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id="gcgge"></source></pre></code><wbr id="gcgge"></wbr><strong id="gcgge"><sup id="gcgge"><center id="gcgge"></center></sup></strong><noscript id="gcgge"></noscript><s id="gcgge"><tr id="gcgge"><tr id="gcgge"></tr></tr></s><del id="gcgge"><menu id="gcgge"><noframes id="gcgge"></noframes></menu></del><table id="gcgge"></table><noscript id="gcgge"></noscript><menu id="gcgge"></menu><noscript id="gcgge"><wbr id="gcgge"><input id="gcgge"></input></wbr></noscript><small id="gcgge"><center id="gcgge"><tr id="gcgge"></tr></center></small><ul id="gcgge"></ul></div>  <script src="http://220.181.41.26/comment/comment?newsid=1324551&encoding=GBK&data=ABQ2BwAAAAIAAAAfAAAAAQA96YeR56CW5Zub5Zu95YaN6IGa6aaWIOilv-aWueWqkuS9k-ensOivleWbvuaUueWPmOWFqOeQg-agvOWxgAAAAAAAAAAPNztKUztUSU1FOzE7R0JLAAAALjAsAhRFvNcSApGwLVSz76WO1e8rQWeGFQIUW4VDhkgIY_V3f40EKiMRSL0e8Z0."></script> <script> //評(píng)論顯示模板 var template = [ '<table width="100%" align="center" cellspacing="0" border="0">', '<tr style="font-weight: normal; background-color: #a8ddff; color: black">', '<td colspan="2" align="left">', '<span>評(píng)論人：{1} </span>', '', '<span>發(fā)表時(shí)間：</span><span>{2}<span> </span>', '</td>', '', '</tr>', '', '<tr style="font-weight: normal; background-color: #f5f5f5; color: black">', '<td colspan="2" align="left">', '<span>{4}</span>', '</td>', '</tr>', '<tr>', '<td colspan="2">', '<hr size="1">', '</td>', '</tr>', '</table>' ].join("");; //格式化方法 String.prototype.format = function(){ var args = Array.prototype.slice.call(arguments, 0); return this.replace(/\{(\d+)\}/g, function(m, i){ return args[i]; }); }; //利用前面生成的js內(nèi)容.如果有評(píng)論即nIndex>0則顯示評(píng)論中內(nèi)容，否則不顯示 if (nIndex > 0) { var LatestNewsNode = document.getElementById("LatestNews"); var LatestNewsContent = []; for (var i=0; i<nIndex; i++){ LatestNewsContent.push(template.format('', (strNodes[i]["anonymous"] == "1" || strNodes[i]["nickName"].length == 0) ? "匿名用戶" : strNodes[i]["nickName"], strNodes[i]["postTime"], strNodes[i]["posterIP"], strNodes[i]["content"]) ); } LatestNewsNode.innerHTML = LatestNewsContent.join(""); } </script>  </html>