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<div id="suq6066" class="mainbox_01" style="color:#006aa2;"> <div id="suq6066" class="itmleft"><a href="../../../" target="_blank">首頁(yè)</a>-<a href="../../" target="_blank">經(jīng)貿(mào)</a>-<a href="../" target="_blank">宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)</a></div> <div id="suq6066" class="itmright">字號(hào)：<a href="javascript:doZoom(16)">大</a> <a href="javascript:doZoom(14)">中</a> <a href="javascript:doZoom(12)">小</a> </div> </div> <div id="suq6066" class="mainbox_01"style="border-bottom:#999 1px solid; margin-bottom:10px;"> <h1>中行“加息”威力勝于央行對(duì)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)重?fù)?/h1> </div> <div id="suq6066" class="mainbox_01"style="text-align:center;color:#006aa2"> 時(shí)間:2010-04-28 09:57　　　來(lái)源：中國(guó)證券報(bào)</div> <div id="suq6066" class="mainbox_02" id="textsize"><P>　　央行加息的靴子雖遲遲未落，中國(guó)銀行對(duì)存量房貸“加息”的猛然一刀，卻顯然有異曲同工之妙。而且，這一刀斬下的傷口之深，或在將來(lái)出乎人們的預(yù)料；其對(duì)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的重?fù)簦瑒t無(wú)異于雪上加霜。</P> <P>　　從中國(guó)銀行上周末公布的方案來(lái)看，此次存量房貸的調(diào)整是針對(duì)全體房貸客戶，調(diào)整利率則緊跟國(guó)務(wù)院房產(chǎn)新政的要求，尤其是對(duì)第二套房貸以及第三套及以上房貸進(jìn)行了大幅度的上調(diào)。在調(diào)整以后，貸款期限超過(guò)5年的首套房貸款利率將上升至5.049%，第二套房則上升至6.534%，第三套房及以上則上升至7.128%�？紤]在去年的瘋狂購(gòu)房潮中，銀行貸款尺度大幅寬松，二套房甚至不少三套以上房的貸款利率也能享受利率7折優(yōu)惠（4.158%），則中國(guó)銀行此次對(duì)存量房貸的調(diào)整等于給三類客戶分別加息了89個(gè)基點(diǎn)、237.6個(gè)基點(diǎn)和297個(gè)基點(diǎn)。按照央行習(xí)慣上每次加息27個(gè)基點(diǎn)來(lái)計(jì)算，則等于給這三類客戶分別加息約3次、9次和11次。</P> <P>　　這種加息幅度，購(gòu)房者能否承受？若以20年期100萬(wàn)元房貸計(jì)算，在中國(guó)銀行的此輪超常規(guī)“加息”之后，三類存量房客戶的月供將分別增加約483元、1330元、1686元。對(duì)于首套房且貸款額相對(duì)不高的自住客而言，這種月供的增加額尚在可承受范圍之內(nèi)，但對(duì)于擁有多套房屋，青睞豪宅并喜歡大量使用杠桿的投資客來(lái)說(shuō)，這種月供的增加幅度有可能是致命一擊。</P> <P>　　舉個(gè)例子，某投資客在上海擁有四套房產(chǎn)，單套購(gòu)入總價(jià)均在300萬(wàn)元以上，而且均采用了3成首付，采用300萬(wàn)元的最低線，以20年貸款期限計(jì)算，其月供總共需增加約10894元。而按照上海目前的租賃行情，這部分月供的增加額是無(wú)法通過(guò)增加租金的方式來(lái)消化的。</P> <P>　　很顯然，如果僅從政策角度考慮，中國(guó)銀行此次對(duì)存量房貸的率先“加息”，起到了精準(zhǔn)打擊的效果。如果中國(guó)銀行的政策得以在銀行業(yè)普遍推廣，那無(wú)論是對(duì)投資客的繼續(xù)投資還是過(guò)往炒作，都將大幅度提高投資成本，有效遏制炒房行為。對(duì)于許多受過(guò)往政策效果影響而對(duì)此次房產(chǎn)新政前景心存疑慮的人們來(lái)說(shuō)，中國(guó)銀行的此番舉動(dòng)則無(wú)異于再度傳遞了政府重?fù)舴康禺a(chǎn)業(yè)過(guò)熱炒作的決心。而對(duì)于房地產(chǎn)商來(lái)說(shuō)，中國(guó)銀行的行為則需要引起他們的高度警惕，畢竟房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是一個(gè)資金高度敏感的行業(yè)，銀行的態(tài)度將直接決定這個(gè)行業(yè)近期的表現(xiàn)。</P> <P>　　不過(guò)，目前銀行業(yè)內(nèi)對(duì)中國(guó)銀行的舉動(dòng)褒貶不一。盡管從政策導(dǎo)向而言，中國(guó)銀行此舉符合政府調(diào)控的方向，但如果落實(shí)到經(jīng)營(yíng)層面，中國(guó)銀行的行為則顯然有些大膽。畢竟，這是一次對(duì)客戶忠誠(chéng)度的嚴(yán)峻考驗(yàn)，一旦合同約定的利率保有期限到了，而其他銀行并未采取同樣的存量房貸政策，那很容易出現(xiàn)客戶大量流失的局面，從而對(duì)其業(yè)績(jī)?cè)斐芍卮笥绊�。因此，有業(yè)內(nèi)人士猜測(cè)，中國(guó)銀行對(duì)存量房貸利率的調(diào)整有可能得到監(jiān)管層的授意，未來(lái)很有可能在監(jiān)管層的推動(dòng)下，整個(gè)銀行業(yè)都開始調(diào)整存量房貸利率。畢竟，這不僅是對(duì)國(guó)務(wù)院房產(chǎn)新政的呼應(yīng)，而且有助于增厚銀行業(yè)的利潤(rùn)。</P></div> <div id="suq6066" class="coupage"> <script> //createPageHTML(1, 0, 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